correction
An earlier version of this column misstated that the corruption trial for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would resume if he were forced out of office. The trial is ongoing.
There was an inevitability to the showdown between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Their perspectives on what long-term peace in the Middle East requires were always at odds. And their political interests are in sharp conflict.
But Biden’s public declaration that the United States would not give military support to a full-on incursion into the city of Rafah in southern Gaza because it would raise an already ghastly civilian casualty toll is no less momentous for that.
It has implications far beyond the politics of the 2024 presidential campaign. There was broad rallying behind Israel across party lines after Hamas’s heinous Oct. 7 attack that killed some 1,200 people. Now the Israeli-Palestinian issue is becoming partisan again.
Netanyahu has played this game before. He alienated Democrats in 2015 by accepting a Republican invitation to address Congress in opposition to President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, and over a long period with his settlement policies in the West Bank. This time, Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition partners are pushing away a president who has been one of Israel’s best friends.
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For Biden, the confrontation has a tragic quality. It’s hard to think of a politician with a more intense gut sympathy for Israel and a deeper personal hostility toward antisemitism. The president put all his emotions on display when he visited the Jewish state after Oct. 7. Rank-and-file Israelis acknowledged his empathy, rewarding him with approval ratings that far exceeded Netanyahu’s.
Follow this authorE.J. Dionne Jr.'s opinionsBiden stuck with Israel through months of Israeli attacks on Gaza and soaring civilian death tolls, to increasing consternation from within his own party.
He has finally had enough. While backing Israel’s goal of defeating Hamas and insisting the United States would continue to give Israel all the help it needed to defend itself, Biden put action behind his words of opposition to a large-scale military operation in Rafah. “It’s just wrong,” Biden said in a CNN interview on Wednesday night. “We’re not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells.”
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Republicans united in a chorus of condemnation. House Speaker Mike Johnson (La.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), who rarely make joint statements, were quick to issue a letter denouncing Biden, writing that “pauses in critical weapons shipments call into question your pledge that your commitment to Israel’s security will remain ironclad.” Donald Trump called Biden’s decision “disgraceful.”
The move roiled Israeli politics, too. The country’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, tweeted “Hamas ♥ Biden” in response to Biden’s decision — and drew harsh scoldings.
Centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid demanded that Netanyahu fire Ben Gvir. Accusing Netanyahu of “failed management” of the U.S.-Israel partnership, he said that a failure to force Ben Gvir out “endangers every soldier in the IDF and every citizen in the State of Israel.” Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, also criticized Ben Gvir, obliquely but clearly, calling out “baseless, irresponsible and insulting statements and tweets.”
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The roots of the current clash lie in deep differences between Biden and Netanyahu over the need for a Palestinian state and conflicting domestic political priorities.
Biden needs the fighting in Gaza to subside not only for the sake of his reelection campaign but also because his overall Middle East strategy requires it. He wants to begin negotiations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab partners that would lead to recognition of Israel and moves toward Palestinian statehood.
But for Netanyahu, an end to the fighting would bring a reckoning with the rage among Israelis over his government’s failure to prevent the Oct. 7 attack, and possibly new elections. Right-wing members of his coalition have threatened to bring down his government if he failed to move on Rafah and keep his promise to destroy Hamas — a goal the U.S. government sees as unrealistic, especially in the absence of a plausible day-after plan.
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Netanyahu has used the war to push for delays in his trial on corruption charges.
That Netanyahu is willing to antagonize a Democratic president who has paid a high political price for his loyalty toward Israel is of a piece with his earlier moves that shattered bipartisan support for Israel.
Now, Israel is a wedge issue among Democrats who have depended on both Jewish and Muslim voters. Biden’s modulated stand is embraced by large parts of the party, but it also draws dissent at both ends of its coalition. When it comes to the politics of the Middle East, the middle ground is a treacherous crossroads.
The split was reflected in the divided Democratic reactions to Biden’s decision. Staunch supporters of Israel such as Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) expressed disappointment, while progressives who had been increasingly critical of the president praised the move. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said Biden’s step “makes the world safer and our values clear.”
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By speaking out now, Biden was escaping an increasingly untenable position. His stand has the virtue of forcing a needed reckoning.
Netanyahu plainly needs to be challenged, and his nation needs to understand the diplomatic, political and human costs of re-escalating the war. For Biden, this meant moving from an uncritical love that wasn’t working to a tough love that demands speaking truth to a friend.
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